N1H1 Running its course in Texas?

By Bill Gast/  freelance@addisongastbooks.com

Saturday May 2, 12:30 PM the ER room at the New Braunfels Texas ER room at Christus Santa Rosa hospital is empty. Not even a crying teenager with a broken arm from a skateboard experience. CDC as of Friday had no new cases verified or reported.

Parking at Christus near empty. New Braunfels Library closed. Satler Texas Library closed. Most schools in Comal county will be closed until May 11

So far it is known that the virus sheds more than seven days after symptom onset.(possibly as long as nine days--this is unusual)

Since this is a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd Immunity" so the attack rate is very high. this is the percentage of people that come down with a virus if exposed. almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatic. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-155 .The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.

The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bas in the hill country of Texas as in Mexico and there are folks that are on ventilators here in the US  right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near New Braunfels is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life.In Mexico these people might have died already but here in the US we are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly and we have ready access to ventilators. What this really means, unless this "quiet spell we are having" is a blessing and a sign that the worst is over, that within a coupla weeks regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed

In interviews with the stricken, it was noted that the kids with positive cases had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis.

There are 10-25 times more actual cases ( not "possible" cases--actual) than what is being reported by the mainstream media. the reason for the discrepancy is that it takes three days to get the conformation from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.

One of the immanent problems that face CDC- we are running out of Tamiflu. there is a National Stockpile but it will have to be carefully managed

Again, as noted in the opening of this article, you should avoid going to ER if you think you have been exposed and are symptomatic. Suggestions from Dr. Overman are that you may want to use some N-acetyl-Cysteine--a nutritional supplement available at your health foods store or pharmacy. Also, Oscillococinum has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in europe.

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